BREAKING
12 MAY 2026  ·  NEGATIVE GEARING REMOVED FOR NEW PURCHASES  ·  ESTABLISHED PROPERTIES AFFECTED FROM BUDGET NIGHT  ·  CGT DISCOUNT REPLACED FROM 1 JULY 2027  ·  NEW BUILDS REMAIN FULLY GEARABLE  ·  CBA REVISES 2026 PRICE FORECAST TO 3%  · 12 MAY 2026  ·  NEGATIVE GEARING REMOVED FOR NEW PURCHASES  ·  ESTABLISHED PROPERTIES AFFECTED FROM BUDGET NIGHT  ·  CGT DISCOUNT REPLACED FROM 1 JULY 2027  ·  NEW BUILDS REMAIN FULLY GEARABLE  ·  CBA REVISES 2026 PRICE FORECAST TO 3%  · 
2026
Policy Analysis13 May 2026·8 min read

The 2026 Budget Just
Split the Property Market
In Three.

On Budget Night, negative gearing on established properties was closed to new purchases. Some suburbs are now structurally weaker. Some are completely insulated. And some just got an unexpected tailwind. Three categories. One question: which side is your suburb on?

● Exposed● Resilient● Accelerated
EXPOSED
RESILIENT
ACCELERATED
1 Jul '27
NG ends for new purchases
Properties bought after Budget Night lose immediate deductibility.
30%
Minimum CGT on gains
Replaces the 50% discount from 1 July 2027.
−2pp
Price growth revised down
CBA cut 2026 forecast from 5% to 3% the morning after.
New builds
Still fully gearable
Unlimited NG preserved. Investors choose best CGT treatment at sale.
01

What Actually Changed

Negative Gearing Restricted

EFFECTIVE NOW

Established properties bought after 7:30pm AEST 12 May 2026 can no longer offset rental losses against salary. Losses are quarantined to future rental income only.

Grandfathered properties anything you already own is completely unaffected until you sell. No forced exit.

New builds remain fully negatively gearable with no restriction on number of properties. Unlimited deduction preserved.

CGT Discount Replaced

FROM 1 JUL 2027

50% CGT discount is replaced with cost-base indexation plus a 30% minimum tax rate on real gains for individuals, trusts and partnerships.

Transitional rule gains before 1 July 2027 use current rules. Only gains accruing after use the new regime.

New builds choose 50% discount or indexation at sale — whichever produces the lower tax bill. No such choice for existing established property.

COMBINED EFFECT

An established property purchased today will, from 1 July 2027, generate no immediate tax deduction on rental losses and face a higher CGT bill on eventual sale. The after-tax return on new purchases of established investment property has been structurally reduced. Existing holders are completely unaffected.

"The investors who moved after APRA in 2017 made money. The ones who waited for the consensus view saw prices already moved. The budget dropped 48 hours ago."

FairSquare Research — 13 May 2026
Most investors don't know this yet

We've hand-assessed 613 suburbs
against the budget.

Three categories. 613 hand-picked suburbs assessed. Here's a preview — and how to find out exactly where yours lands.

Resilient
The budget barely registered here
Accelerated
Owner-occ demand. No competition.
ExposedResilientAccelerated

The 50 most exposed. The 50 most resilient.
The 50 best positioned to accelerate.

We hand-assessed 613 Australian suburbs against the budget — then ranked them. This report contains the 50 that matter most from each category: scored, classified, and ready to act on.

EXPOSEDTop 50 suburbs where investor demand is now structurally contracting.
RESILIENTTop 50 suburbs insulated by owner-occupier demand — budget barely touched them.
ACCELERATEDTop 50 suburbs now attracting displaced capital. The window is narrow.
02

What to Do Right Now

01
Identify your suburb's category first

Prestige score is the fastest proxy. Low prestige, high rental penetration → likely exposed. High prestige, owner-occupier dominated → likely resilient. Mid-prestige with a Green signal → likely accelerated. Our report gives you this in under a minute.

02
Remodel any shortlisted property without NG

If your return model assumed full negative gearing deductibility from Year 1, that number no longer works for a purchase made today. Remodel with losses quarantined. If the deal still stacks, it's genuinely cashflow-led.

03
Move on accelerated suburbs before the repricing

The market consensus on which suburbs benefit will form over the next few months. The window between a structural shift and broad recognition is short. We're in it now.

04
Do not panic-sell grandfathered properties

If you already own an investment property, the rules haven't changed for you until you sell. There is no forced exit. The rational move is to stay on current rules and only reassess on the next dollar you deploy.

03

The Timeline

12 May 2026
Budget night — NG closed

Negative gearing on established residential properties closed to new purchases at 7:30pm AEST. Grandfathering confirmed for existing owners. CGT changes announced, deferred to 2027.

Now → Jun '27
The reposition window

A 13-month window to reassess portfolios, remodel returns without NG, and identify which category each shortlisted suburb falls into before the full regime applies.

1 Jul 2027
Full regime live

Both changes fully effective. New established property purchases lose NG entirely. CGT discount gone. New builds continue under the original, more favourable rules.

Ongoing
Capital redirection

Investor demand that previously targeted negatively-geared established properties searches for yield elsewhere. New builds and accelerated owner-occupier-led markets absorb the displaced capital.

3
Updated model · Post-budget analysis

Find out which side
your suburb is on.

Exposed, resilient, or accelerated — a full 10-page report gives you the investment verdict, prestige score, and a post-budget playbook tailored to your suburb. Delivered to your inbox in under 60 seconds.

ExposedResilientAccelerated

General information only. Not financial advice. FairSquare (ABN 84 556 985 125) provides property market analysis for informational purposes. Policy details sourced from budget.gov.au and Treasury announcements as of 13 May 2026. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.